Surviving the Next Recession: Is Your Business Prepared?

If a recession hits tomorrow, would your business be ready? 

Whether or not the U.S. enters a formal recession this year, ecommerce brands are already feeling the squeeze. Consumers are cautious, credit is tight, and margins are under pressure.

The good news? You can act now. 

This eight-step plan will show you how to protect revenue, improve operational efficiency, and position your brand to grow — even in a downturn.

Are we in a recession right now? Here’s what the data says

Short answer: Not officially. Yet.

As of May 2025, the U.S. economy hasn't entered a declared recession, but economic indicators are flashing yellow. Stubborn inflation. A volatile stock market. Consumer sentiment has tumbled as more people are financing groceries with buy now, pay later. 

J.P. Morgan’s forecast:

• In April, they raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 60%, up from 40% earlier this year
• Contributing factors: aggressive U.S. tariffs (including a 145% tariff on Chinese goods) and slowing global trade (though U.S.-UK agreements and a 90-day tariff pause with China could change things)

But just because there are warning signs doesn’t mean a recession is certain, because there are mixed signals. Unless these economic signals become more pronounced, we probably won’t know whether the U.S. is in a recession until July. 

Who decides when we’re in a recession?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares when the U.S. enters a recession.

While a two-quarter decline in GDP is often used as a rule of thumb, the NBER considers multiple factors like income, employment, industrial production, and the depth, diffusion, and duration of the economic downturn. 

Bottom line: You don’t need a headline to prepare. Acting now to recession-proof your business means it won’t just survive, it’ll stay ahead.

Why 2025 might feel like 2008 and 2020 combined

Consumers are signaling financial strain at levels not seen since past recessions. They’re eating out less, and recent reports show that one in four Americans are using financing to cover essentials, including groceries and gas, highlighting how stretched household budgets have become.

Meanwhile, job growth is slowing in many sectors like tech and manufacturing, business investment is cooling, and both economists and business leaders are increasingly warning of a potential downturn.

Layer in high-stakes tariff escalations and global supply chain disruptions, and it’s clear that 2025 is shaping up to be a uniquely volatile year for ecommerce. 

And while ecommerce boomed during the last recession, customer expectations have changed. Slower checkouts, clunky payment options, and poor messaging won’t be forgiven in a tighter economy. 

That’s why having a recession-ready funnel matters more than ever.

Step 1: Audit your revenue flows to recession-proof your business

Start with what you can control: how money moves through your funnel.

• Pinpoint friction points like checkout abandonment, failed payments, and discount overuse
• Cut products or promos that don’t drive high-margin returns
• Double down on channels that consistently convert

Your checkout experience is often where revenue is won — or lost. If you’re not tracking conversion behavior at that critical moment, you're likely missing out on high-impact optimizations.

With Checkout by Sticky.io, you can track abandoned cart behavior, apply dynamic discounts based on cart value, and surface one-click upsells that increase average order value (AOV) without adding friction. All without adding friction or relying on dev support.

Step 2: Trim the fat, not the funnel

Don’t start slashing budgets blindly. Instead, assess which tools and tactics are essential to your growth.

• Eliminate underperforming apps, platforms, or campaigns
• Preserve high-ROI tools like conversion analytics and flexible checkouts
• Run a funnel audit to identify where your margins are made (and lost)

Look for solutions that can help you turn your data into action. Advanced reporting in Checkout helps turn raw checkout data into clear, actionable insights, showing you exactly where customers are dropping off, which incentives are converting, and how upsells are impacting profitability.

Step 3: Optimize every transaction

In uncertain times, small conversion improvements compound into meaningful revenue gains. Even a 1% lift in conversion can add thousands in retained revenue over time.

For instance, if you can reduce friction at checkout, expand payment flexibility, and increase order value, even slightly, those changes can offset softer traffic or cautious spending.

Here’s how to think about it:

• Improving your checkout speed will likely boost conversions. Even a one-second delay can reduce conversions by up to 7%, and Amazon reported that every 100-millisecond delay in load time cost them 1% in sales.
• Limiting payment options creates unnecessary friction. If your checkout only supports credit cards, you’re excluding customers who prefer digital wallets, buy now/pay later, region-specific methods, etc., all of which are increasingly common in 2025.
• Skipping the upsell is leaving margin on the table. Post-purchase upsells and one-click add-ons are high-leverage ways to increase AOV without increasing ad spend, especially when customers are already primed to buy.

Sticky.io’s Checkout platform helps optimize every transaction by loading 59% faster than other hosted checkout solutions, supporting 160+ payment gateways, and making it easy to layer in post-purchase upsells. 

Step 4: Use automation to scale smarter, not harder

Recessions test agility. Brands that can pivot quickly, without exhausting resources, are the ones that stay ahead. That’s why automation and scalability aren't just nice-to-haves; they’re essential.

• Use no-code tools to update checkout flows, discounts, or upsells without engineering bottlenecks
• Launch A/B tests and iterate faster to see what resonates with cautious customers
• Streamline backend workflows to reduce manual effort and redirect resources toward revenue-driving initiatives

Step 5: Build trust and loyalty to protect your base

Acquiring a new customer is five times more expensive than retaining an existing one. In a recession, trust becomes your most valuable asset.

• Be transparent about shipping costs, return policies, and product availability
• Strengthen post-purchase communications to reassure and engage customers
• Reward loyalty through perks, subscription offers, or first access to new products

Step 6:  Strengthen cash flow and stabilize recurring revenue

Cash flow is critical during an economic slowdown. Relying on unpredictable one-time purchases leaves your business vulnerable.

• Shift more customers into prepaid bundles, memberships, or subscriptions
• Incentivize longer commitments with discounts or perks
• Forecast more accurately with clear monthly recurring revenue (MRR) metrics

Step 7: Monitor your payment health to protect revenue

Declined payments might not show up on your P&L, but they quietly erode your bottom line. During a downturn, every dollar matters.

• Monitor decline rates and identify patterns across gateways
• Optimize retry strategies to avoid revenue loss due to soft declines
• Track payment approval rates and decline codes
• Use smart routing and cascading logic to boost success rates
• Look for a tool that can automatically recover failed payments, even better if it uses smart retry logic that adapts to customer behavior

Platforms like Recovery by Sticky.io use AI to optimize retry timing and improve recovery rates by up to 75%, helping you rescue revenue that might otherwise slip away.

Step 8: Diversify your sales channels to stay resilient

Overdependence on one acquisition channel or platform is risky, especially during market shifts. The more diversified your revenue streams, the more insulated you are from volatility.

• Expand to new channels like TikTok Shop, marketplaces, or affiliate programs
• Test bundling or tiered offers based on customer segments
• Bundle bestsellers with new products to increase AOV
• Create localized checkout flows for international markets

A down market is a growth opportunity for the prepared

Recession-proofing your business isn’t just about tightening spend — it’s about making every revenue stream more resilient. From cash flow predictability to checkout optimization, the businesses that move first will come out stronger.

But even the best strategies fall apart at the point of purchase if your checkout experience can’t keep up.

That’s where Checkout by Sticky.io delivers real results. It helps ecommerce businesses reduce checkout abandonment, streamline conversion flows, and maximize every transaction by:

• Loading 59% faster than other hosted checkout solutions
• Supporting 160+ payment gateways, including local and alternative methods
• Giving you complete control to test, optimize, and scale with no code required
• Seamlessly integrating with Shopify, including Shopify apps for subscriptions and dropshipping

If you're serious about future-proofing your funnel, your checkout is the place to start.

Convert more. Scale quickly. Explore Sticky Checkout.